Let me be crystal clear: Republicans took a beating Tuesday night. NBC News and the Associated Press have Democrats winning the House and the Senate. Pretending otherwise helps nobody. I was wrong, and I own it: in the weeks running up to the election, the optimistic outcomes I walked through did not happen. The map broke against us, worse than I expected, and anyone who listened to me deserves to hear me say so plainly. But there is one race on the map that is not over, and it is in my home state. Democrat Scott Colom leads Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith by 43 votes, 462,821 to 462,778, with about 95.6 percent of the expected vote counted. Neither NBC nor the AP has called it. Mississippi is not conceded. It is not lost. It is not finished.
What Mississippi has left to count
Independent Ty Pinkins has 19,935 votes. Hinds County paused its count after midnight and planned to resume Wednesday morning. The Colom campaign says 10,000 to 15,000 affidavit ballots are still uncounted statewide, and the Hyde-Smith campaign says its own numbers show her winning. The Sun Herald, citing the National Conference of State Legislatures, reports that Mississippi allows a recount only by court order. There is no runoff in a federal general election, so whoever finishes first takes the seat.
An affidavit ballot is a provisional ballot, cast when a voter's eligibility is in question or the voter has a problem such as no acceptable photo ID or the wrong precinct. Here is my position, and it is simple. Count every legal ballot. Count none that is not. Let the county officials do their work in the open, and let both campaigns watch it. That is not a talking point. That is how you keep the result trustworthy to both sides.
Colom is not pro-life in office
Do not let anyone wrap Scott Colom in the word "conservative" now that he is close. On Sept. 19 he told the Starkville Daily News, "I'm personally pro-life," and in the same answer said he understands "the importance of reproductive freedom" and trusts women to "make the right decision for themselves." He did not name one limit. As a Democrat, he would sit in a caucus that votes against pro-life legislation. That is not pro-life. That is a label on a pro-choice vote. A Democrat is not pro-life in office, and Mississippi Republicans know it.
The national picture
I will give you the numbers straight, as of 6:20 a.m. Central.
The Senate: NBC counts 54 Democratic seats to 44 Republican, with Mississippi and Alaska uncalled. Democrats flipped seven seats: North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Ohio, Kansas, Iowa and Maine. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Ken Paxton 55.1 to 43.0. In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Mike Rogers 52.4 to 45.6 with 96 percent in. Texas also flipped its governor's office, with Gina Hinojosa ahead of Gov. Greg Abbott 52.8 to 45.7.
The House: NBC has called 231 Democratic seats to 144 Republican and projects 258 to 177 when the count is done. The AP says voters were angry about prices, the Iran war and corruption. The AP's own voter poll says the president's failure to tame inflation weighed on Republicans. Take that seriously. Prices are the one issue I will not let this party dodge.
The Red Wall states
On my show Tuesday morning, Cliff Maloney of Citizens Alliance said his teams had hit 1.85 million doors across Pennsylvania, Arizona, New Hampshire and Nevada, "and we're not going to stop until the polls close." That is his organization's count, not an audited figure, and those workers deserve our thanks. They did the work.
The top of the ticket still went the other way in all four. In Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity 60.3 to 38.4. In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs beat Rep. Andy Biggs 55.7 to 42.6. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas leads former Sen. John Sununu 56.2 to 41.9, though Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte holds on, 51.1 to 47.2. In Nevada, Democrat Aaron Ford unseated Gov. Joe Lombardo, 51.7 to 44.2.
Doors win wars. A ground game moves votes at the margin, and Tuesday was not a margin. Cliff warned me that "if the Trump voters aren't part of the coalition, it's going to be a bloodbath tonight," and he warned the party that "our answer can't be we're not as bad as the commies." Those are the right instincts. Republicans have to give voters a reason to show up: lower prices, a secure border, and a country that is safe.
Your orders
First, if you live in Mississippi, watch the count and stay ready. Call your county election commission if you have a question about an affidavit ballot. Do not let anyone tell you the work is over.
Second, show up for every runoff. Hancock County's seven-way sheriff race goes to a runoff, and so do several races in Hinds, Madison and Rankin counties. Local races decide who sits on your bench and in your sheriff's office.
